Do we have a population problem?
November 15, 2022 was a monumental day for the human race, on that day we passed the 8-billion-person-milestone. It took just 12 years for us to go from 7 billion people to 8 billion (UN), a growth rate that has been stabilizing after nearly a century of rapid growth. The world population did not reach one billion until 1804. And then it took 123 years to reach 2 billion in 1927, 33 years to reach 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974, 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987, and 11 years to reach 6 billion in 1998. (Population Connection)
Population Panic
Every time we hit one of these population milestones, a heated debate breaks out around what it will mean for the population going forward. Famines, social unrest, and environmental collapse are all stated as potential consequences of our growth. And it may shock you to learn that this kind of population panic can be traced back all the way to 1798 when Thomas Malthus published an essay on the “Principle of Population”, which claimed that if populations grew exponentially while food production grew linearly the result would be famine, conflict, death. This kind of rhetoric continued throughout history and peaked in the 60s. One example of this peak was the release of a book called “The Population Bomb” by Paul Ehrlich, who was a professor at Stanford University at the time (Smithsonian Mag). In the book, Ehrlich claimed that death rates were going to skyrocket and we would face mass starvation and a dying planet. While some may look at our current challenges around hunger and environmental degradation and say that Ehrlich was correct, the truth is his claims were extreme, with him predicting a complete breakdown of the capacity of the planet to support humanity within 15 years, which of course did not come to fruition.
But what is more important is that population rhetoric alarmism rhetoric comes with some very serious consequences and helped fuel a range of abusive population control programs in the form of population control, for example, people being forcibly sterilized, women being forced to use officially-mandated contraception or have forced abortions that may not have been a right choice for their health and autonomy, and families being told how many children they could have.
And now, here we are today, with 8 billion people now reached and predictions that we will hit 10 billion by the end of the century (Scientific American). Yet, the discourse is different this time. At the same time as alarm bells rang out about this newest milestone, other high-profile figures like Elon Musk were warning about the possibility of population collapse. Musk went so far as to say that "population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming.” (Yahoo)
UNFPA’s Report - 8 Billion Strong
So what is the truth? Are we too many or are we too few? The new UNFPA report tackles this topic head-on and shows that the answer is not a simple binary, but rather a complex discussion about centering the rights of women and improving a wide range of systems to support our changing global population dynamics.
The UNFPA’s Report is titled “8 Billion Strong” and it argues that “we must move past simplistic narratives of ‘too many’ or ‘too few’” to better understand and cope with population dynamics.
Too Many
To break down the ‘too many’ argument, the UNFPA explains that the narrative that we are overpopulated usually points the finger at poor and marginalized communities who have long been portrayed as reproducing recklessly, despite actually having the smallest contributions to issues such as environmental destruction. Put quite simply, consumption is the problem here, and most consumption is driven by high-income individuals and nations. In fact, half of all emissions come from the richest 10 percent of the world’s population. The UNFPA also notes that the ‘too many’ narrative paints human survival as a problem, rather than an achievement. Global life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019 – an increase of nearly 9 years since 1990, thanks to advances in medicine, better hygiene and living conditions, and improved food, nutrition, and lifestyle (Forbes). I think we can all agree that is something to celebrate.
Ultimately, and to wrap up the ‘too many’ argument, the UNFPA warns against any approaches that forcibly try to reduce population or birth rates and argues we must focus on investments in education, health care, clean and affordable energy, and gender equality to give people more autonomy and choice when it comes to their family decisions.
Too Few
On the argument of ‘too few,’ the UNFPA notes that while our global fertility rate remains above the ‘replacement-level’ of 2.1 births per woman, an estimated two-thirds of the world population is now living in a country or area with sub-replacement fertility. Worldwide, fertility has fallen from an average of 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births per woman in 2021, and it is expected to fall to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.
The UNFPA argues that these statistics are not a cause for alarm bells that the population may collapse. In fact, only one region in the world - Europe - is expected to see an overall population decrease in the short term. Other regions such as Central, South, and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and North America, are projected to continue growing but reach their peak sizes before 2100. It is important to remember that birth rate is not the only means of population growth in a region, migration is expected to be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries. This demonstrates the importance of having sound migration policies as I covered in my SDG 10 video. The UNFPA sees falling fertility as a positive indication that individuals – particularly women – are able to exercise more control over their reproductive lives.
Conclusion
So ultimately, the UNFPA report’s largest conclusion is not that we are way overpopulated and that certain groups of people must stop having children, nor is it that we are on the brink of population collapse. It points to broader, global shifts we as a society need to make in order to adapt to changing population dynamics. These include protecting the rights of women and reproductive choices, supporting aging populations, creating opportunities for young people, ensuring safe and fair integration of migrants into local populations, reducing the environmental burden of the rich, and holding governments and corporations accountable for environmental degradation while supporting new models of sustainable development.
Keep Learning
Here are a few great resources for further reading and learning:
8 Billion Strong (2023, UNFPA)
Day of 8 Billion (2023, United Nations)
10 Reasons Why Population Control is Not the Solution to Global Warming (2009, Hampshire College)