Energy, Climate, and Conflict
Introduction
If you are like me, you have probably been very disturbed by the conflicts raging globally at the moment - whether it be Yemen, Ethiopia, Myanmar or the subject of today’s video, the acts of war Russia has taken against Ukraine.
I am in no way a peace or geopolitics expert so I don’t pretend to understand all the dynamics surrounding this conflict, but I am a sustainability expert and I do think there is a very interesting dimension to the conflict related to the energy system and the fight against climate change.
For those of you who missed it, this week the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or the IPCC for short released the second component of its sixth assessment report which was focused on the impacts of climate change, vulnerabilities, and potential adaptation strategies. I had originally planned to cover that report this week but I thought a more useful and interesting analysis would be to unpack and explore the linkages between our energy system, climate change, and conflict, and specifically how the situation in Ukraine shines a light on these issues and forces the world to examine what kind of energy system we need, not only for the planet but also for peace.
Russia’s Energy Production
Russia is a huge oil and gas producer globally. It is the second largest producer of natural gas, and the third largest producer of oil. They account for 17% of all global natural gas output and 12% of all global oil output. And if we look at exports, the picture becomes even more stark. Russia is the world’s largest net energy exporter of combined oil and gas. In fact, oil and gas make up 60% of all Russia’s exports (BP Stat Review). Russia has direct energy relationships with more than two dozen European nations, as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and more (The Conversation).
And those trading relationships are incredibly important for the Russian economy. Oil and gas accounts for approximately 15% of its GDP (oilprice.com) and provides 39% of its federal budget revenue. So given all this information, it is not a stretch to say that oil and gas have directly funded Russia’s military and provided the country with an important economic position globally, that frankly emboldened Putin to take the steps he did with Ukraine.
European Reliance on Russian Energy
Oil and gas have become a political and economic weapon. 40% of all natural gas and 25% of all oil used on the European continent comes from Russia (Marketplace). This clearly played into Putin’s political calculations, as he likely believes the country’s exports are too important to sanction. And frankly he’s probably or partially right. Europe does have enough gas in storage to get it through the spring but what happens when winter comes?
The energy system cannot turn on a dime, it is large-scale, complex infrastructure which takes a lot of time and a lot money to build. This means that if Putin were to constrain or cut off energy supplies from Europe in the lead up to winter the only short term options available for meeting Europe’s energy needs will involve fossil fuels. According to Scott Montgomery’s recent piece in The Conversation, there are three viable options for meeting this demand - restoring the Iran nuclear deal which would allow Iranian oil back into the market, increasing petroleum production including liquefied natural gas and exports from North America, Qatar, East Africa, Papua New Guinea and the Eastern Mediterranean, or pressuring Saudi Arabia to raise output, which has not worked in the past.
But it is a lot more complex than just considering how potential gaps in energy supply could be filled in the short run. Russia’s moves have sent energy prices through the roof, which encourages more fossil fuel production overall. High prices also upset consumers, which is always bad news for politicians. In addition, Putin needs the revenue from fossil fuel exports to continue funding his war and it’s not looking good for him - international energy firms are considering leaving Russia and, while sanctions have not yet targeted the energy sector, there is a potential Europe could consider this if the situation escalates further.
All this to say, these extremely complex conditions have put the issue of energy independence front and centre.
Links to Climate
Let’s look at all of this against the backdrop of this new IPCC report that came out this week. The report states that things are actually worse than we thought. We have already reached 1.1 degrees of warming which is causing wide ranging effects from the melting ice sheets to the destruction of coral reefs. Worse yet, these climate related impacts are hitting the world at the high end of what modellers once expected. And much more quickly than previously assessed. Many of these impacts of global warming are irreversible and 40% of the world's population is "highly vulnerable", with people and animals already dying from extreme weather events. The report implores us to act now because there is still a brief window of time available to avoid the very worst (BBC).
But most importantly for what we are discussing in this video is that the report clearly states that fossil fuels are “choking humanity.”
This situation with Russia has created a clear impetus for all countries, and particularly those in Europe, to speed up the transition to clean, diversified, and where possible independent sources of energy. However, the bad news is the short term picture. As mentioned, transforming energy infrastructure takes time and the short term spikes in energy prices and additional production needed to fill gaps will lead to increased fossil fuel production and emissions. In a worse case scenario, reactions could set back decades of progress in eliminating coal and lessening dependence on fossil fuels if we do not handle the situation delicately (The Guardian). In addition, war itself is a massive emitter and countries may feel the need to invest more heavily in their militaries with the looming threat of war, rather than into the solutions we need for a bright future (TED).
We have to be extremely careful of the short term steps we take no matter what the longterm goal. The IPCC report has made it very clear that our window of opportunity is closing quickly.
In all this darkness, I do think there are tiny glimmers of hope for the energy dimension of this conflict. The speed and unity, in which countries acted against Russia in the face of war does provide a model and optimism that they can do the same for the transition our energy systems from dirty and unstable to clean and secure.
Keep Learning
Here are a few great resources for further reading and learning:
War in Ukraine is changing energy geopolitics, The Conversation
Pressure to stop buying Russian energy builds, Marketplace
Ukraine war prompts European reappraisal of its energy supplies, The Guardian
Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC
Five things we've learned from the IPCC report, BBC
The War in Ukraine Could Change Everything TED