How Climate and COVID are Interlinked

Written By Kali Taylor

Before I start, I would like to give a shout out to YOUNGO, CliMates, and IISD for launching Youth Climate Action, a new platform to help young people meaningfully participate in climate negotiations. Some of the research I gathered for this video was done as part of that project.

The links between Climate and COVID are two way, meaning that climate change has an effect on pandemics and diseases AND this particular pandemic will have an impact on climate change.

Zoonotic Diseases

COVID is a zoonotic disease, which means that it jumped from animals to people. Jumps like these are referred to as a spillover. According to WWF, spillovers are increasingly common with examples such as Ebola, SARS, MERS, and Zika all emerging due to spillovers this past century. Why is this the case? Humans are putting more pressure on nature and this increases the likelihood of transmission from animals to people. While this is not directly climate-related and more to do with biodiversity-loss, these things stem from the same problem - humans are wreaking havoc on the natural world. When we cut down forests for agriculture or livestock, this decreases the habitats of animals and makes it more likely that there will be interaction between a disease-carrying animal and a human. In addition, the illegal wildlife trade remains popular and many of the animals traded are known to be disease carrying.

While the main cause of spillovers is biodiversity loss and the illegal wildlife trade, climate change is non inconsequential. Research from the University of Stellenbosch, found that climate change is creating better conditions for organisms that carry diseases, such as parasites and microbes referred to as disease vectors, to transmit those diseases into other organisms.  The warmer temperatures caused by climate change create the opportunity for these vectors to live longer or in places they were not previously found, which in turn increases the threat of transmission.  Researchers are also concerned about what rising sea level could mean for diseases. It is believed that there may be diseases frozen in ice that we have not encountered as humans for thousands of years that could be reactivated as temperatures warm. In addition, floods could make water-borne zoonotic diseases more likely to interact with humans.

COVID and CO2 Emissions

You may have heard in the news that the global lockdowns led to a massive reduction in emissions as well as pollution that, for example, allowed people in Delhi to clearly see monuments for the first time in years. This was true, in April 2020, at the heart of the largest lockdown daily emission levels fell by 17% compared to 2019 levels. However, that massive drop was not sustained and in total for 2020, the total reduction was between 7-8%. Some industries were more greatly affected, the aviation industry, which is a relatively small source of emissions globally (approximately 2%), faced the largest single reduction of any sector for emissions, estimated to be 75% at its peak and 40% total over the course of the year.

To me, this seems like a small reduction given the fact that so much economic activity stopped and shows that our CO2 emissions are “baked” into many aspects of our life. Reducing emissions in a way that allows people to have livelihoods will take a complete rethinking of our systems.

We must also be cautious about how we go back to “normal” life. During the 2008 financial crisis, there was a noticeable emissions drop that was followed by a 6% increase in the recovery period. Because the lockdowns were forced changes to human behaviour and not structural changes to the systems in which we operate, it is assumed that there will be a bounce back at some point, however this is difficult, if not impossible, to predict.

Another important point is that the temporary reduction did not have an effect on the actual levels of CO2 in the atmosphere CO2 will continue to accumulate perhaps just by a slightly smaller amount. Carbon Brief estimated that CO2 levels will rise by 2.48 parts per million (ppm), this is 0.32ppm or 11% smaller than was expected pre-COVID. Only when emissions drop to zero or close to it will natural systems begin to uptake carbon, reducing its overall levels in the atmosphere.

Build Back Better

Many are touting COVID as a chance to rethink everything and “build back better”, to use the crisis as an opportunity to make sweeping changes. While this mantra is nice in theory, it only works if the policy and financial resources are there to back it up. Governments have been pumping money into economies to keep them afloat, but is that money going to make our systems better, stronger, greener, resilient and inclusive? The answer is mixed:

  • The Green Stimulus Index estimates only $3.7 trillion of the total $12.7 trillion in relief was spent directly in industries that will have a positive impact on climate and nature, and that the stimulus to date will have a net negative environmental impact in 16 of the G20 countries.

  • The story is similar for the energy industry, the Energy Policy Tracker found that G20 countries have committed almost double to fossil fuels (£89B than they have to clean energy ($151B).

International Negotiations

As discussed in my video about the US in the Paris Agreement, 2020 was meant to be a huge year for increasing ambition on the Paris Agreement. Countries were meant to submit their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020 and COP26 in Glasgow is seen as an important moment for the international community to reinforce their commitment to climate action. In addition, COP26 was where important rules around carbon markets, loss and damage, and climate finance were to be agreed upon.

Unfortunately, the pandemic made it impossible for negotiators to gather and this important moment was delayed by a year - to November 2021. There is concern that such a delay will be detrimental to the process, and any consideration of a virtual meeting is also wrought with issues because developing countries feel, rightfully so, that their voices will not be adequately heard in a virtual format.

In addition, big questions remain about what the pandemic will mean for climate finance, countries have had to spend massive amounts of money to keep their own economies afloat, when this is all said and done will there still be money for the Green Climate Fund? And perhaps the largest questions of all, did this pandemic crush any faith and support that was left for globalism? And what does it mean for multilateralism? Did COVID show that we need each other to respond to global issues or did it show that the multilateral system was ill-prepared for working together when a crisis strikes? All of this is to be seen as we recover and move forward.

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Kali Taylor
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